Monday, December 05, 2011

Chris Martenson: The Predicaments (English)

По наводке блога Давыдова.

This video was recorded on November 16 at the Gold & Silver Meeting 2011 in Madrid.

Unlike the previous videos, here you can find some predictions. Here, there is a better explanation about Peak Oil than in his on-line Crash Course (see in links below). For example, about Oil Shock II that can occurred in any point from now till 2013. Also, Chris Martenson claims that in 10-20 years time we will have shortage on many commodities.

See also:
הקורס בהתרסקות מאת כריס מרטנסון - פרק 1 The Crash Course - Chapter (Hebrew)
Crash Course: Chapter 1 - Three Beliefs by Chris Martenson (English)
Crash Course: A Brief (English)
קיצור הקורס בהתרסקות מאת כריס מרטנסון (Hebrew)
Сергей Капица. Парадоксы роста и развитие человечества.

There is short description below and also there is same videos starting at the interesting points.
Ниже есть продолжение.

Форматирование моё.

Since all our money is loaned onto existence, our economy has to grow exponentially. Martenson proves this point empirically by showing a 99.9% fit of the actual growth curve of the last 40 years to an exponential curve. If we wanted to continue on this path, our debt load would have to double again over the next 10 years. By continually increasing our debt relative to GDP we are making the assumption that our future will always be wealthier than our past. He believes that this assumption is flawed and that the debt loads are already unmanageable...

Martenson explains how exponential growth works and why it is so scary that our economy is based on it. In an example he illustrates how unimaginably fast things speed up towards the end of an exponential curve. He shows that an exponential chart can be found in every one of the three "E's" for instance in GDP growth, oil production, water use or species extinction. Due to the natural limitations on resources, Martenson comes to the conclusion that we are facing a serious energy crisis.

This energy predicament is namely that the quantity of oil as well as the quality of oil are in decline. He shows that oil discoveries peaked in 1964 and oil production peaked 40 years later. Martenson also shows how our return on invested energy is rapidly declining -- the "cheap and easy" oil fields have already been exploited. In 1930 the energy return for oil was 100:1 or greater. Today it is already down to 3:1 and newer technologies such as corn-based ethanol only provide a 1.5:1 return. Martenson predicts that the time in between oil shocks will get shorter and shorter and that oil prices will go much higher.

Not only oil but also other natural resources are being rapidly used up as well. At the current projected pace of use, known reserves for many metals and minerals will be gone within the next 10 to 20 years. The energy needed to get these non-renewable resources out of the ground is growing exponentially. So we live in a world that must grow, but can't grow and is subject to depletion. The conclusion out of all this is that our money system is poorly designed and that we need to rethink how we do things as quickly as possible.

After finishing his presentation Chris Martenson answers questions regarding a rise in efficiency, alternative technologies and oil prices. He also responds to questions regarding electricity, shale gas, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and uranium and the race for global resources.

About last major finding in Brazil. It is true that it is largest in the last decade, but it is small compare to what findings was at previous decades.

One more interesting thing about Peak Oil.

Q&A section. First question is about Peak Oil.

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