23 people. In a room of just 23 people there’s a 50-50 chance of two people having the same birthday. In a room of 75 there’s a 99.9% chance of two people matching.https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/
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In a room of 23, do you think of the 22 comparisons where your birthday is being compared against someone else’s? Probably.
Do you think of the 231 comparisons where someone who is not you is being checked against someone else who is not you? Do you realize there are so many? Probably not.
The fact that we neglect the 10 times as many comparisons that don’t include us helps us see why the “paradox” can happen.
See the link above for the details.
Note: .4995=0.4995, it is very weird not to see leading zero...
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